The upcoming US elections on November 5 have turned into a contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Originally set for a Biden-Trump rematch, the race changed course in July when President Joe Biden exited and endorsed Harris as the Democratic nominee. Since joining the race, Harris has held a slight lead in national polls, but that gap has recently narrowed.
Harris gained a nearly four-point edge in August, though her numbers stayed stable through September, even after the widely watched September 10 debate. National polls show her slight lead, but they don’t directly determine the outcome. The US elections will ultimately hinge on the electoral college system, where 538 electoral votes are at stake. To secure the presidency, a candidate must win 270, making the swing states the battlegrounds.
This year, seven key states—Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are polling tightly. Trump has recently held a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris has maintained a narrow edge in Nevada. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris has led since August, but Trump has now shown a slight advantage in Pennsylvania. With swing-state polls so close, neither candidate has a decisive edge in these crucial areas.
The polling website 538, associated with ABC News, creates polling averages from reputable sources using telephone, online, and text polls. It only includes data from sources that meet quality standards. Still, polls have missed Trump’s support in past US elections, adding uncertainty to the forecast. With only days to go, the outcome of this close race remains unpredictable, keeping the nation’s attention locked on the results that will unfold in November.
